According to the global wind energy association predict that next several years, entire style of playing electricity installed capacity still swift growth. To 2013, global accumulation wind electricity installing equipment will amount to 332100 megawatts, in the past increased installing equipment to be possible to amount to 56300 megawatts, this digit will be 2008 2 times. And, Europe, North America and Asia are the present wind electricity installing equipment grow the quickest area.
The Chinese wind power fruitful in resources, the wind electricity industry development work progress is very quick, in the future the wind electricity industry still had the very big development opportunities. It is estimated that in the future the wind electrical machinery demand will still maintain grows quickly, 2010~2011 years may amount to 10556 megawatts and 12667 megawatts separately, grow 30% separately compared to the same period and 20%. 2009~2011 year three year compound rate of increment may reach 26.58%.
Development low-carbon energy first choice
The wind electricity is one of most competitive low-carbon energy, except is producing the link to have the few carbon dioxide emissions, in wind electrical machinery’s entire movement period will not have the carbon dioxide emissions, will have obviously reduces a row of function.
According to the international wind energy association estimated that if obtains the suitable development, to 2020, only the wind electricity reduces the displacement to be able to achieve the industrialized country to reduce the row of pledge volume 65%.
The wind power generation technology undergoes many year development, at present in technology already gradually mature, the industrial chain is also more perfect, already contended with in the partial countries and the area with many traditional energy industry. It can be said that the wind electricity already became global various countries to develop the renewable energy source, realizes reduces the platoon, the development low-carbon economy first choice.
The relative other new energy industry, the wind electricity industry chain is longer. The development wind electricity is obvious to the industrial chain upstream and downstream lead role, and may increase the employment, realizes reduces the platoon. Especially since the international finance crisis, the development wind electricity has become various countries’ stimulation economy the first choice plan.
The material demonstrated that entire style of playing electricity installing equipment will continue the swift growth. Accumulation installing equipment already grew from 1995 4800 megawatts to 2008 120789 megawatts, the additional installing equipment year compound rate of increment achieves 26.37%. The data historically looked that Europe, Asia and the Americas are wind electricity installing equipment grow the quickest area. By the end of 2008, European, Americas and Asia’s wind light display fuselage should not be 65946 megawatt, 27542 megawatts and 24368 megawatts, account for the entire style of playing electricity installing equipment proportion respectively is 54.59%, 22.80% and 20.17%.
Although receives the financial crisis to affect, global increased installing equipment still to amount to 30400 megawatts last year, bi shangnian growth approximately 12.38%. The European speed-up postpones, but the US as well as China and India grow very quickly, thus promoted global addition installing equipment to grow quickly.
After many year development, the wind electricity industry moves toward maturely gradually. Its cost already close conventional energy source, moreover the resources are very rich, is under the present engineering factor the most economical clean energy. Based on these reasons, the wind electricity becomes various countries’ development low-carbon economy, realizes the energy substitution first investment field. Although in some areas, if European some countries, because the development degree is quite high, the speed-up has reduces speed, but the wind electricity still presented the tendency which in the global development springs up everywhere.
At the same time, but also has the many resources condition good country and the area, like Canada, Australia and so on compete to develop the wind electricity, the wind electricity development potential do not have may estimate.
The new energy generates electricity the priority of investment
In recent years, because the electric power supply and demand tense aspect had the alleviation, domestic equipment manufacturing industry ability strengthened, has provided the very good opportunity and the condition for our country electric power installing equipment structure’s optimization.
Stemming from will deal with the climatic change, the carbon dioxide to reduce the platoon, the future energy security and the sustained development consideration, our country coal electricity hold absolute proportion condition must change. By the end of 2009, our country thermal power installing equipment occupies whole installing equipment 75%, the power rate occupies the complete power rate 81%. At present thermal power installing equipment was still a main force, accounts for 75% which installs equipment completely.
Starts from 2007, because the government intends to control the additional thermal power project construction, encourages the wind electricity, the water and electricity and so on new energy or the renewable energy source industry development, our country electric power installing equipment structure has the optimization: The wind electricity, the water and electricity and so on clean renewable energy source electricity generation installing equipment occupies compares the rise, the thermal power installing equipment proportion drops.
Under the energy structural adjustment’s huge pressure, the estimate can be bigger in the future in the power source structural adjustment policy dynamics: The wind electricity will continue to consummate the support policy, the wind electricity accesses the net the difficult question to be solved in the future soon hopefully, at the appointed time will clean the wind electricity industrial development completely the barrier. Meanwhile, the nuclear power will enter the big development time, the nuclear power occupies in the entire installing equipment compares will grow unceasingly; The light will bend down the electricity generation also to start under the policy stimulation to enter develops the speedway. But in the thermal power aspect, will be speeds up the low efficiency small unit the elimination promotion, on the new unit by the large capacity high parameter unit primarily, the IGCC technology and the equipment will become the direction which the thermal power equipment will develop in the future.
In the future, the wind electricity and so on new energy industry will be installing equipment grows the quickest part, also will be the power source investment key point. It is estimated that to 2015, all new energy like wind electricity, the nuclear power, the light will bend down the electricity generation to have the remarkable growth: The wind electricity will grow from 2009 17,060,000 kilowatts to 2015 101,980,000 kilowatts; The nuclear power will grow from 2009 9,080,000 kilowatts to 2015 38,080,000 kilowatts; The incorporation light will bend down electricity generation installing equipment to grow from present the approximately 245,000 kilowatts to 10,845,000 kilowatts.
In 2010 and “35″ period, our country increases the electric power installing equipment change to be not too obvious every year, but because the additional installing equipment structure’s change – - – unit installs equipment the investment cost bigger new energy electricity generation installing equipment proportion to enlarge, thus the entire power source investment cost the growth with stability, will still estimate that the year investment cost will grow from 371,100,000,000 Yuan to 2015 497,300,000,000 Yuan.
May estimate that the wind electricity and so on new energy electricity generation will be the biggest beneficiary who the power source investment grows.
Wind electricity still scenery infinite
Recent years, my national customs electrical machinery complete machine supply-demand relation had the reversal, the profit margin acceleration approached to the average level.
Looking from our country wind power status of resources and already the degree which develops,Coach Shoulder Bags, the wind electricity industry still had the very big development opportunities. According to the predict that in the future two, three year windward electrical machinery’s demands will still maintain grow quickly. The wind electricity market demand growth is very quick, produces can grow is quicker.
According to the main manufacturer produces to the profession in can count: The country internal wind electrical machinery produced can already appear in 2009 obviously surplus: in 2009 and in 2010 the country internal wind electrical machinery demand respectively is 812 and 10,560,000 kilowatts, but the home this ballad electrical machinery manufacturer will only produce can amount to 1200 and 17,250,000 kilowatts. At present, in the wind electricity produces can under the surplus situation, the many enterprise meridional international markets have sought for the outlet, from this will initiate the entire profession the conformity.
Meanwhile, because the wind electricity complete machine supply-demand relation has the reversal, the wind electrical machinery price fall is inevitable. In the near future, in the country family tradition electricity charter tender, the data which from enterprises and so on golden wind science and technology will announce looked that the wind electrical machinery price appeared slid obviously. The wind electricity price’s fast drop will cause the complete machine profit margin acceleration to approach to the average level.
Before 2008, because the wind electricity complete machine falls short of demand, the essential spare part is short, the complete machine price has been strong, and also slightly has the promotion. After achieving the certain scale, the complete machine manufacture profit is rich; Country internal wind electricity industry in start stage spare part necessary not entire, partial components like generator, main bearing, gear box, electric control, even the leaf blade most needs to import,coach hobo bags, therefore the upstream spare part manufacturer also enjoys the rich profit; But wind electric field investment, because the wind electrical machinery price stays at a high level, the government subsidy is limited, is in and loss balanced edge merely.
since 2009, because the complete machine supply enlarges, the home industry necessary consummates gradually, prices and so on complete machine and partial spare part like generator, gear box and leaf blade return to the reasonable level gradually, these product profit trend being uniform; The wind electric field management as a result of the complete machine price fall, reasons and so on financing cost reduction, the profit margin unceasingly promotes. Recently the dragon source electric power in Chinese Hong Kong market success going on the market, showed that the capital market gradually is also favoring the wind electric field operation domain.
Although the wind electricity industry competition intensifies unceasingly, but in 2010 entire style of playing electricity industry still swift growth, thus brings the opportunity for the wind electricity industry’s each link’s manufacturing industry. The material, the spare part, the complete machine manufacture gentle breeze electric field operation and so on related company will profit.
What is worth paying attention, the domestic market will be centralized to the profession Leading enterprise. Although the complete machine market plane is in labor can be surplus, but this happen to is the profession Leading enterprise conformity opportunity. Under the policy impetus and the market mechanism, the domestic market gradually Leading enterprises and so on orientation electricity and golden wind science and technology will be centralized.
This year the wind electricity complete machine export will send the strength
Since under the domestic market competition intense situation, 2009 the numerous wind electricity complete machine Manufacturing firm has started to enter the international market day by day. This year may say that is the national customs electrical machinery’s export first year.
And, the golden wind science and technology wind electrical machinery exports the US, the day imposing electrical machinery sign exports the Australian agreement, many enterprises obtain the south wind electrical machinery order form. It is estimated that starts from 2010, the partial wind electricity complete machine enterprise export business will harvest the good profit.
The expert believed that the wind electricity industry domestic and foreign market situation hastens, the complete machine export will send the strength in 2010, but promotes the wind electricity industry to continue the healthy development powerfully. But its resistance and the risk factor are also not allow to neglect.
First, new energy policy support dynamics is lower than anticipated. Our country develops the new energy industry vigorously, but in the short-term is impossible fundamentally to change our country present by the thermal power electric power installing equipment structure primarily. Therefore, new energy policy support dynamics and the releasing time have the possibility to be lower than anticipated. Second, raw material price fluctuates largely. Raw material prices and so on copper, aluminum, silcon steel, the long-term fierce fluctuation, this kind of aspect will increase the enterprise Production organization’s difficulty historically speaking, the operational risk increases.